The Black Swan

 

Millions Miles Away a Butterfly Flapped its Wing :-

The movie above deals with Mandlebrot’s fractals, that is proposed to model more complex market behavior riddiled with ‘randomness’.

Mandlebrot’s fractal is proposed in opposition to gaussian distribution a trait of the cartesian system also that relies on the adam smith’s model. Black Swan is a metaphorical treatment of the existence of the randomness in the system that makes it highly improbable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an advocate for in-determinism while dealing with large probabilistically distributed system (large enterprise architectures)

http://www.forbes.com/2007/05/23/nicholas-taleb-innovation-tech cz_07rev_nt_0524taleb.htmlhttp://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf 

Extracts from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s article

“Globalization allowed the U.S. to specialize in the creative aspect of things, the risk-taking production of concepts and ideas–that is, the scalable part of production, in which more income can be generated from the same fixed assets through innovation. By exporting jobs, the U.S. has outsourced the less scalable and more linear components of production, assigning them to the citizens of more mathematical and culturally rigid states, who are happy to be paid by the hour to work on other people’s ideas.”

For those who constantly worry and inquire into future 

“We need more tinkering: Uninhibited, aggressive, proud tinkering. We need to make our own luck. We can be scared and worried about the future, or we can look at it as a collection of happy surprises that lie outside the path of our imagination.”

Ideas supporting probabilistically large indeterministic systems

Mandlebrot

Generative Order

Implicate Order

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3 comments

  1. As I wrote this on 8th. On 9th on MSNBC, business news, one of the analyst termed 9th August as the black swan day, owing to the stock crash due to fall in the credit market. Randomness was one among many reasons attributed to the fall.

    “NEW YORK – U.S. stocks moved toward another opening plunge Friday after Thursday’s huge sell-off and as bank regulators including the Federal Reserve injected cash into money markets, stoking concerns of a more pronounced liquidity crunch. Futures came off of their lows Friday after the Fed’s move.”

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