randomness

Big Data still in naivety proves Elusive to Big Picture and Randomness

Big Data as it exists today is not necessarily a tool that creates the Big Picture. Most systems that exists today are designed based on predicated methods. These rely on known variables, the only constraint unknown are the values of the variables. Predicated system are constrained to create newer insight as they are bounded by system boundaries defined by known variables. The new emergent variables can be considered as the non-causal agents until the newer order of the complex system begins to emerge; in which the newer variables manifests.

To develop wider and deeper insight about the behavior of the complex system as the system driven by entropy moves from one order to next; it does require to bring into its realm the possible newer variables. Lack of adequate techniques (Bayesian network included) in discerning all the variables that affect the system behavior creates uncertainty. Predicated system as such are blind sighted to such uncertainties. This creates inadequacies in methods when dealing with the randomness in the system. Emergence of newer variables that begin to affect the system behavior become the newer causes. Predicated system cannot hone on the variables that  lie dormant as the non-causal agents.

The hidden non-causal agents can be discovered by creating 2nd order generative semantic models. Predicative systems as such are not designed to dramatically alter its behavior; but only reflect the behavior constrained by those variables considered in its initial design

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Enterprise Architecture – Theory of Constraints – EA unravels Complexity – ‘Success is not Luck’

Goldratt on ‘Theory of Constraint’

    Advt based on TOC – Regulated Harmony

While credit card speeded up the process, it did take away money from one and made dependent on the Creditors. Credit Card companies make awesome loads of money taking advantage of the imposed systemic dependency. (antithesis)

    Note: TOC attempts to detect bottlenecks in processes (especially in a simpler process cell) that may eventually choke the entire system.

Self Regulating Chaos (subconscious intelligence)

    Or is it really Harmony Discerned from Chaos !!Probabilistic Determinism – seems like Harmony, While individual occurances are stochastic (random)

The Black Swan

 

Millions Miles Away a Butterfly Flapped its Wing :-

The movie above deals with Mandlebrot’s fractals, that is proposed to model more complex market behavior riddiled with ‘randomness’.

Mandlebrot’s fractal is proposed in opposition to gaussian distribution a trait of the cartesian system also that relies on the adam smith’s model. Black Swan is a metaphorical treatment of the existence of the randomness in the system that makes it highly improbable.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory 

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an advocate for in-determinism while dealing with large probabilistically distributed system (large enterprise architectures)

http://www.forbes.com/2007/05/23/nicholas-taleb-innovation-tech cz_07rev_nt_0524taleb.htmlhttp://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf 

Extracts from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s article

“Globalization allowed the U.S. to specialize in the creative aspect of things, the risk-taking production of concepts and ideas–that is, the scalable part of production, in which more income can be generated from the same fixed assets through innovation. By exporting jobs, the U.S. has outsourced the less scalable and more linear components of production, assigning them to the citizens of more mathematical and culturally rigid states, who are happy to be paid by the hour to work on other people’s ideas.”

For those who constantly worry and inquire into future 

“We need more tinkering: Uninhibited, aggressive, proud tinkering. We need to make our own luck. We can be scared and worried about the future, or we can look at it as a collection of happy surprises that lie outside the path of our imagination.”

Ideas supporting probabilistically large indeterministic systems

Mandlebrot

Generative Order

Implicate Order