uncertainty

Big Data still in naivety proves Elusive to Big Picture and Randomness

Big Data as it exists today is not necessarily a tool that creates the Big Picture. Most systems that exists today are designed based on predicated methods. These rely on known variables, the only constraint unknown are the values of the variables. Predicated system are constrained to create newer insight as they are bounded by system boundaries defined by known variables. The new emergent variables can be considered as the non-causal agents until the newer order of the complex system begins to emerge; in which the newer variables manifests.

To develop wider and deeper insight about the behavior of the complex system as the system driven by entropy moves from one order to next; it does require to bring into its realm the possible newer variables. Lack of adequate techniques (Bayesian network included) in discerning all the variables that affect the system behavior creates uncertainty. Predicated system as such are blind sighted to such uncertainties. This creates inadequacies in methods when dealing with the randomness in the system. Emergence of newer variables that begin to affect the system behavior become the newer causes. Predicated system cannot hone on the variables that  lie dormant as the non-causal agents.

The hidden non-causal agents can be discovered by creating 2nd order generative semantic models. Predicative systems as such are not designed to dramatically alter its behavior; but only reflect the behavior constrained by those variables considered in its initial design

What is ‘Change’

By Srinidhi Boray

Change affects everybody. And it will happen again and again, when the entropic equilibrium is disturbed. It is a systemic property. It is not driven by a person nor a simple one factor. It is not a property of personality. It is the intrinsic systemic property. Change happens so political reforms happen. It is not the other-way around.

Many factor comes into play for a change to occur. It is very difficult to visualize changes and the transformations. The only thing that can be understood is the process that facilitaes the change not the final form the change will lead into, until it comes to a rest. As John Zachman points, change is a ‘step function’. It is not  a liner extrapolation of the past. It is a dynamic evolution of a completely new system, which is very difficult to be envisaged.

From the Theory of Constraints, it is known that the degree of Complexity reduces the degree of Freedom within a certain system boundary. After a certain complexity threshold is reached, the system has to completely metamorphise to overcome the systemic constraint, and to do so, has to evolve into a completely new system. It will not any longer be mere re-form, rather it will be ‘generative’.  Certainty can only be held that long. After a certain threshold it will be the fiefdom of the Uncertainty until the next stable state is reached. While discussing harmony, chaos is presumed. The ceaseless juggle between the two is responsible for producing a newer system.